How high will unemployment go?
As we move towards the conclusion of the Government’s furlough scheme, many of our clients are wondering what effect its conclusion will have on the number of people without jobs.
I sense the public and business will tolerate a situation where unemployment is sitting below 10% of the working population. However, if the total goes above that level, the Government may be more inclined to offer further support or intervene on a sector-by-sector basis.
We have not yet seen large-scale unemployment in senior financial roles. We may see people released if they have not performed well over the last six months; others will lose their jobs if their company folds.
It is fair to assume that some sectors, such as technology, will recover more quickly than others. In areas such as high street retail, casual dining, the performing arts, travel and aviation, however, it is hard to see a swift recovery until a vaccine is widely available.
There are encouraging signs from researchers in Oxford that a vaccine is on its way before the turn of the year. That would be the best Christmas present for everybody in the country.